The new role for business in a fairer Britain

Mrs May, in a surprise contribution to Sunday’s FT (https://www.ft.com/con…/12a839d4-af18-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1), enjoined businesses to work together with government to, I quote: ‘maintain confidence in a system that has delivered unprecedented levels of wealth and opportunity, lifted millions out of poverty around the world, brought nations closer together, improved standards of living and consumer choice, and underpinned the rules-based international system that has been key to global prosperity and security for so long…’

She’s referring, of course, to free market capitalism. Or, more pointedly, to combating what she perceives as voters’ loss of confidence in the system. Voters are, she worries, resentful of unequal distribution of wealth, and perhaps perceive a rigged establishment with tax-avoiding corporations, tax-avoiding non-dom shareholders, and stratospheric financial sector bonuses awarded for taking risks that are underwritten by the taxpayer. Fair enough: they’re all good reasons for voters to be unhappy.

Except, how unhappy are they? Are voters really losing confidence in the system?

May is reading the electorate’s mood through the prism of Brexit. She will likely always be condemned to do so. For Mrs May, Brexit is the drug from Plato’s Pharmacy: a poison that paralysed the establishment, yet a remedy for her ambition to ascend the establishment’s most senior office. Through this lens, the referendum, Trump, the resurgence of populist politics across the Western hemisphere, represent iconoclastic, anti-establishment movements.

Which, in fact, they’re not. Voters still aren’t much interested in politics and economics. The anti-establishment theme is almost accidental. Voters are just having an identity crisis.

Trump the… Klansman?

When Donald Trump first seriously considered a presidential bid, back in 1999, it was as the prospective leader of the Reform Party. He resigned from the Republican Party at that time, saying ‘I really believe the Republicans are just too crazy right’.

Trump described the anticipated leader of the Reform Party, Pat Buchanan, as ‘a Hitler lover’, and the candidate of the ‘really staunch right wacko vote’, adding, ‘I guess he’s an anti-Semite…He doesn’t like blacks, he doesn’t like gays – it’s just incredible that anybody could embrace this guy’. (http://partners.nytimes.com/…/po…/camp/whouse/ref-trump.html.)

In February the following year, Trump declared that he wouldn’t pursue a leadership bid for the Reform Party, saying ‘Now I understand that David Duke has decided to join the Reform Party to support the candidacy of Pat Buchanan. So the Reform Party now includes a Klansman (Mr Duke); a Neo-Nazi (Mr Buchanan); and a Communist (Ms Fulani). This is not company I wish to keep.’ (https://www2.gwu.edu/~action/trumpout.html).

At that time, Trump was interviewed on the same subject by NBC’s Matt Lauer, who asked, ‘What do you see as the biggest problem with the Reform Party right now?’ To which Trump replied: ‘Well, you’ve got David Duke just joined — a bigot, a racist, a problem. I mean, this is not exactly the people you want in your party.’

Either (a) Donald Trump has recently converted to the Klan’s cause, or (b) his Klan affiliations—purported singularly by his reaction to journalists over David Duke’s endorsement—are campaign bullshit. It’s not hard to decry Trump on policy: Why stoop to the lazy ass, sensationalist propaganda effort? What happened to ‘When they go low’, etc.?

Trump’s a populist, anti-immigration politician. The stable of ascendent right-wing leaders throughout Europe and beyond may quickly find that their similarity with him ends there. His Republican opponents for the candidacy circled him relentlessly on the opposite claim: that he was secretly a New York liberal — a Democrat wolf in Republican sheep’s clothing.

If the social media mood’s right, we’ll see Hillary in jail next year. If Rubio and Cruz were right, we won’t.

Election prediction: Trump

Seatbelts on folks: Trump’s going to win this election. Admittedly, my predictive talents have taken a bashing after the EU Referendum, but, it’s in the same vein that the US is about to see a populist revolt. One thing’s for sure: after all the ruffled feathers settle across NATO, I bet we start to see a few more defence budgets start working towards that 2% target…